Compare the assumptions
Factor lab
Compare direction, drivers and disagreement across the three pairs with this complete evidence set.
This is an older snapshot. Check the source dates before using its context.
Pair scorecard
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| Pair | Recent price | Bias | Score | Technical | Fundamental | SentimentFutures proxy | COTLeveraged funds | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed | -2.0 | |||||||
| Mixed | -0.1 | |||||||
| Bearish | -2.4 |
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Each technical condition contributes one upward, downward or neutral vote. The factor score averages the three; it is not a probability.
All factor inputs and source dates
EUR/USD
| Factor | Measurement | Score input |
|---|---|---|
| Price vs MA20 | -1.187 % | -1 |
| MA20 vs MA50 | +0.038 % | 0 |
| MA50 change over five observations | -0.001 % | 0 |
| Policy-rate difference | -1.375 pp | -6.9 |
| Growth momentum | +0.748 pp difference in change | +10.0 |
| Labour momentum | -0.200 pp difference in improvement | -5.0 |
COT and sentiment proxy: position date 22 Sept 2026. Leveraged-fund pair tilt -1.6; non-reportable pair tilt +1.7. Both components use the published futures-contract mapping.
USD/JPY
| Factor | Measurement | Score input |
|---|---|---|
| Price vs MA20 | +0.720 % | +1 |
| MA20 vs MA50 | -1.400 % | -1 |
| MA50 change over five observations | -0.283 % | -1 |
| Policy-rate difference | +2.875 pp | +10.0 |
| Growth momentum | -0.048 pp difference in change | -5.0 |
| Labour momentum | +0.100 pp difference in improvement | 0.0 |
COT and sentiment proxy: position date 22 Sept 2026. Leveraged-fund pair tilt -1.0; non-reportable pair tilt -0.6. Both components use the published futures-contract mapping.
EUR/JPY
| Factor | Measurement | Score input |
|---|---|---|
| Price vs MA20 | -0.471 % | -1 |
| MA20 vs MA50 | -1.359 % | -1 |
| MA50 change over five observations | -0.281 % | -1 |
| Policy-rate difference | +1.500 pp | +7.5 |
| Growth momentum | +0.700 pp difference in change | +5.0 |
| Labour momentum | -0.100 pp difference in improvement | -5.0 |
COT and sentiment proxy: position date 22 Sept 2026. Leveraged-fund pair tilt -1.3; non-reportable pair tilt +0.5. Both components use the published futures-contract mapping.
Scores are a versioned research lens over observed data, not a trade instruction or a calibrated winning probability. The sentiment column uses a futures proxy. Read the method.